Briefing newsmen about official talks, Pakistan Ambassador to China Salman Bashir said the 'most important' aspect of the talks were the "clear and unambiguous, categorical assurance by China to defend Pakistan's sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity".
Clear, unambiguous, categorical assurance is exactly what one likes to have when there is some geopolitical game going on - and it is extremely strong diplomatic language.
Why is Pakistan turning its back to the United States and falling into China's arms?
The area of interest is Baluchistan in the south west corner of Pakistan. A huge mountainous underdeveloped plateau with only some 7.5 million tribal inhabitants, the Baluch.
There has always been trouble between Pakistan and the proud Baluch, a small people also living in southern Afghanistan and eastern Iran. But now issues are heating up again.
There are several parties who have strategic interests in Baluchistan.
The United States is still dreaming of a gas pipeline from the Turkmenistan south through Afghanistan and Baluchistan to the Arabian see. Long term troop stationing in landlocked Afghanistan will also demand a safe line of communication to a seaport.
India wants a gas pipeline from Iran eastward through Baluchistan to Delhi.
But the biggest interest in Baluchistan is Chinese. All sea traffic from the Middle Easter resource fields and East Africa to China now has to go through the Malacca Strait and also pass India and the Philippines. Strategically it is a nightmare to keep this route open in case of a hot or cold global conflict.
China has therefore invested $420 million into developing a deep sea harbor at Gawadar in Baluchistan. A second investment phase of $600 million is planed. From Gawadar land transport routes lead up in north eastern direction to the Chinese-Pakistan boarder. To protect the new harbor Pakistan will even get four modern Chinese frigates.
For Pakistan these plans are all positive. Being the transport hub for neighbor countries pays off financially and adverts conflicts as it creates common interests.
But the strategic interest of the U.S. does differ from Pakistan's. A completely U.S. controlled Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Baluchistan pipeline would be nice. To advert an Iran-Baluchistan-India pipeline would help U.S. interests against Iran and to deny China access to the Arabian sea checks the upcoming competitor. (As does keeping a hand on Unacol)
For about a year now Baluchistan is heating up again. There have been protests, bombs exploding and pipeline attacks. A low level guerrilla war has started even while the Pakistan government is pushing money into the region and develops the water infrastructure.
One wonders who or what might feed this guerrilla war. Who could have an interest in an independent, small, sparse inhabited Baluchistan?
Pakistan was just allowed to buy 24 F16 fighters and the media displayed this as an example of Pakistan-American partnership. But this decision was probably made more in the interest of 5,000 Lockheed voters in Ft. Worth, Texas, who would have been fired without this deal.
A small tribal guerrilla war, supported by a few secret special forces and some Dollars could easily escalate and lead into an independence movement in Baluchistan which would be hard to overcome by military means. Pakistan's President Musharraf will have recognized the possibilities and has decided to go with China.
I now expect a "Free Baluchistan Act" to be on next years congressional agenda. link
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