Friday, 12 September 2008

Fear of losing drove US ground raid in Pakistan
A U.S. decision to mount a ground strike inside Pakistan last week reflected fears that Islamic militants are winning the war against U.S.-led forces and followed political pressures in a U.S. election year.

A quieter Iraq and a power shift in Islamabad also helped open the way for more U.S. strikes in the mountains between Pakistan and Afghanistan, home to Taliban fighters and al Qaeda leaders believed to be plotting new attacks against the West.

"There is no doubt the U.S. patience with Pakistan is running short," said Andrew McGregor, terrorism editor at the Jamestown Foundation security think tank.

The New York Times reported Thursday that President Bush in July approved orders allowing ground attacks inside Pakistan without Islamabad's prior approval. U.S. officials declined comment and Pakistan's U.S. ambassador Husain Haqqani told Reuters Bush had not issued new orders.

But U.S. commandos last week launched a ground attack against an al Qaeda target in Pakistan, in what Pentagon officials described as a return to ground tactics not used since the 2001 U.S.-led invasion of Afghanistan.

Violence in Afghanistan has increased sharply this year. Adm. Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said this week: "I'm not convinced we are winning it in Afghanistan. I am convinced we can,"

"Frankly, we're running out of time," he told a congressional committee.

A senior U.S. official said that the U.S military had the right to go after sponsors of cross-border attacks, while a senior Pakistani official suggested the military had misinterpreted complex rules.

"What you're seeing is an increased activity (by) our troops taking our rules of engagement to them (militants in Afghanistan)," the U.S. official said Tuesday.

The Pakistani official said, however: "There are certain circumstances in which a special operation might be required to go arrest someone ... but that can't easily be done in the tribal (border) areas."

The raid was preceded by a series of U.S. aerial strikes inside Pakistan's tribal areas this year that followed long frustration that the Islamabad government was doing too little to combat Islamist militants.

The Bush administration has treated Pakistan as an anti-terrorism ally since former President Pervez Musharraf promised to cooperate after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks. But Washington also prodded Pakistan with little effect to shut down the militants' border haven.

A defense analyst involved in discussions with the Bush administration said there was wide concern over Afghanistan nearly seven years after the invasion routed the Taliban government and drove out Osama bin Laden's al Qaeda.

"For the first time since 2002, the U.S. government across-the-board, from the Pentagon to the State Department to the CIA to the White House ... share very serious concerns about the direction Afghanistan is going in," said the analyst, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

MATURING SAFE HAVEN

The senior administration official said "the maturing of the safe haven in Pakistan has been a major factor for what we've seen in Afghanistan."

Increased security in Iraq has given U.S. policymakers more scope to focus on Afghanistan and Pakistan, the defense analyst said, and Bush Tuesday said he would send more U.S. troops into Afghanistan as a result.

Musharraf's drawn-out resignation and his replacement by Asif Ali Zardari has hampered the Pakistan government's ability to fight militants, U.S. officials and analysts said.

The Pakistani government had also been unable to sever ties between the military intelligence service, ISI, with the militants, analysts said. A diplomat in Washington, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said personnel changes taking place in Pakistan's intelligence service would satisfy Washington.

Barack Obama, the Democratic candidate in the Nov. 4 U.S.presidential election, has long called for shifting troops from Iraq and said he would be willing to attack al Qaeda inside Pakistan without Pakistani approval.

His Republican opponent John McCain has also supported sending more troops to Afghanistan and has urged more U.S.-Pakistani cooperation to crush militants.

Bush is nearing the end of a presidency largely defined by the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. Both remain unfinished, although this year has seen a marked improvement in security in Iraq.

Progress against the militants in Afghanistan, which depends on clamping down on Pakistan's safe havens, could bolster Bush's legacy, said Bruce Buchanan, professor at the University of Texas.

"If Bush is perceived as the agent that helps to turn things around in Afghanistan before he leaves office, that helps him," Buchanan said. (Additional reporting by David Morgan, Matt Spetalnick, Jeremy Pelofsky; Editing by David Storey)

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